Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

3-1-2018

JEL Codes

E32, E71, G01, G24, G41, L26, M13, O31

Abstract

This paper identifies how capital losses are unavoidably incurred in the discovery of viable entrepreneurial ventures. Losses are proportional to the novelty and perceived profit potential of a prospective venture, exemplified by the high risk/high return nature of high technology start-ups. Venture capitalists internalize the costs and benefits of this discovery process, and set up portfolios where the majority of funded ventures unavoidably fail or earn subpar returns. They incur these losses in order to discover the one Winner venture whose outsize returns will compensate for the capital losses in the failed ventures. The investment in failing ventures is unavoidable and necessary to discover the Winner because the winning business model cannot be determined ex ante. I call this investment “Entrepreneurial Discovery Capital.” This paper hypothesizes that many industry and economy-wide cycles may be the result of such a process that occurs at a much larger scale than a single fund. Venture capital in microcosm provides a model of an economy-wide process where the decisions of myriad market participants are coordinated “as if by an invisible hand” by signals from the capital markets.

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