Breaking Up or Bound Together? Unraveling US-China Economic Interdependence

Authors

Vinh Huynh, DePauw University
Guangjun Qu, DePauw University

Files

Document Type

Poster

Publication Date

10-1-2025

Abstract

This study investigates the extent to which the U.S.-China trade war has altered bilateral trade flows and economic interdependence between the two largest economies in the world. The question at the heart of this research is whether the two countries have truly begun to “decouple” or whether they remain deeply interconnected despite political and economic tensions. Drawing on U.S. and Chinese trade data from multiple official sources, we examine both the scale and persistence of trade disruptions over time. Our analysis extends beyond the pre-pandemic years to include 2020 through 2024, allowing us to distinguish between the trade war’s temporary and persistent effects. Preliminary findings suggest that the trade war’s effects have been both persistent and profound, with total bilateral trade in 2024 falling to less than half of the level predicted by the gravity model. While economic ties remain significant, evidence of sustained decoupling is clear, especially the U.S. import from China.

Department

Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University, Greencastle, IN

Project Mentor

Guangjun Qu, Ph.D, DePauw University

Funding and Acknowledgements

J. William and Dorothy A. Asher Fund in the Social Sciences

Recommended Citation

Huynh, Vinh and Qu, Guangjun, "Breaking Up or Bound Together? Unraveling US-China Economic Interdependence" (2025). Annual Student Research Poster Session. 217.
https://scholarship.depauw.edu/srfposters/217