Statistical Modeling of Solar Flares During Solar Cycle 24 (2010–2015)

Authors

• Walae Dahmany '28, DePauw University

Files

Document Type

Poster

Publication Date

Fall 10-1-2026

Abstract

Solar flares are energetic events driven by the rapid release of magnetic energy in the solar atmosphere and are an important source of space-weather disturbances. This study examined six years of solar flare activity during Solar Cycle 24 (2010–2015) using GOES X-ray observations and NOAA solar activity data. Flare frequency and intensity were analyzed alongside sunspot number, F10.7 cm radio flux, solar-cycle phase, Hale magnetic classification, previous flare activity, and waiting times between major flares. Statistical methods, including correlation and regression analyses, Cox proportional hazards modeling, and ARIMAX time-series forecasting, were used to investigate relationships between solar conditions and flare behavior. Higher sunspot activity was associated with increased flare frequency, while greater magnetic complexity was associated with stronger flares. Previous flare behavior and waiting time provided more limited information about subsequent flare strength. Forecasting results further demonstrated substantial uncertainty in predicting future flare activity. Overall, the findings show that solar flare behavior is associated with multiple solar and magnetic indicators and that combining these factors provides a more complete understanding of energetic solar events.

Department

Department of Mathematics, DePauw University, Greencastle, IN

Project Mentor

Dr. Naima Shifa

Funding and Acknowledgements

Funded by the Faculty Development Committee and J. William Asher & Melanie J. Norton Endowed Fund in the Sciences

Recommended Citation

Dahmany, Walae '28, "Statistical Modeling of Solar Flares During Solar Cycle 24 (2010–2015)" (2026). Annual Student Research Poster Session. 265.
https://scholarship.depauw.edu/srfposters/265